Lobster Stock Assessment Finds Abundance Down, Fishery Strong

At its October meeting the Atlantic State Marine Fisheries Commission’s (ASMFC) American Lobster Management Board received the results of the 2025 American Lobster Benchmark Stock Assessment and Peer Review Report. The stock assessment found that the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank (GOM/GBK) stock has declined 34% since peak levels in 2018. The stock assessment noted that the declines in the population were largely related to environmental factors, with water temperature the “primary influence” on lobster abundance and range.

The 2025 stock assessment found a 34% decline in the lobster population since 2018. MLA photo.

In a statement on the stock assessment, the ASMFC noted the differences between the GOM and GBK lobster fisheries. The GOM fishery accounts for, on average, 82% of the annual landings since 1982. Small lobster boats fishing nearshore comprise most of the vessels involved in the fishery. The GBK fishery is much smaller, averaging 5% of annual landings since 1982, and is predominantly carried out by larger vessels making multi-day trips to offshore waters.

Patrice McCarron, executive director of the Maine Lobstermen’s Association, said the results of the new stock assessment didn’t come as a surprise. “The industry has anticipated that the nonstop growth of the Gulf of Maine population couldn’t last forever, and it’s clear environmental conditions are driving these changes,” she said.

Maine’s lobster fishery hit a record-setting value in 2021, at $742.9 million with landings of 110 million pounds. It was the 10th time that landings exceeded 100 million pounds. In 2022 landings dropped to 98.9 million pounds; in 2024, landings were 86 million pounds but reached $528.4 million in value. It was the lowest annual harvest in 15 years, but the second-highest price-per-pound and the third-highest value in Maine reporting history.

According to the 2025 stock assessment, total GOM/GBK annual landings were stable during the 1980s, averaging approximately 35.4 million pounds. Landings increased through the 1990s and 2000s, exceeding 100 million pounds for the first time in 2009. Between 2012 through 2018 annual landings averaged 145.7 million pounds and have declined since then, averaging 123.6 million pounds from 2019 through 2023.

Tracy Pugh, chair of the Commission’s technical committee and Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries lobster biologist, presented the lobster stock assessment results to the American Lobster Management Board.

She noted that since the average abundance of lobsters remains above what the stock requires to replenish itself, the combined GOM/GB stock is not depleted. However, the assessment also looks at the stock’s exploitation rate, or the portion of the lobster population removed every year by lobstermen. Harvest rates have been stable over time and remain so.

But with the recent and rapid decline in population abundance, Pugh says that harvest rates are now hovering right around the exploitation threshold that’s considered sustainable.

McCarron argued against the declaration of overfishing. She notes that the lobster resource remains healthy and the fishery is sustainable. “According to the model, there’s a 50:50 chance that overfishing is not occurring. The modeling used to create the stock assessment’s results found overfishing was occurring in 11 out of 21 runs. That’s the equivalent of a coin toss,” McCarron said. The finding did not prompt action by managers.

Department of Marine Resources (DMR) Commissioner Carl Wilson said in a statement that the department will engage with lobstermen to determine next steps. “The input we gather from industry will inform Maine’s work with ASMFC to continue the responsible conservation and management of this important resource and fishery. This fishery is the most valuable in Maine that supports thousands of hard-working fishermen and is an economic driver for our coastal communities. I’m confident in the commitment of this industry to conservation of this resource and look forward to continuing this important work.”

DMR officials say they plan to discuss the findings of the 2025 stock assessment with lobstermen at the next round of Lobster Zone council meetings.