Uncertainty Clouds 2025 Lobster Season

It’s May. The leaves are green, the lobster traps have been overhauled, and boat repairs finished. Maine’s lobstermen are thinking about the future as they do every year: When and where should I set? What bait should I use and will there be enough to get through the season? What will the price be?

Global economic uncertainty generated by tariffs may cause a drop in demand for Maine lobster. MLA photo.

These annual questions take on added importance given the economic chaos that the past few months have brought. The Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs throughout the world has pummeled the U.S. stock market as well as global markets. China, in response to U.S. tariffs of 145% on Chinese products, placed a 125% tariff on American exports, including lobster. Trump’s 10% tariffs on the goods from dozens of other countries have dampened enthusiasm for U.S. products in response.

“The word I use over and over is ‘uncertainty.’ Things are changing so quickly that the economy as a whole feels like we are all on shaky footing,” said Amanda Rector, Maine State Economist.

Exports of Maine lobster are also on shaky ground. In 2020 the United States and Canada renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement. Under the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, products that are wholly grown or made with items from Canada or Mexico are not subject to import taxes when entering the United States. Thus Maine or Canadian lobsters shipped across the border are not subject to tariffs.

So why aren’t U.S. and Canadian lobstermen celebrating?

“People aren’t confident going into the spring,” explain Geoff Irvine, executive director of the Lobster Council of Canada. “The [global] tariffs are off and then on again. There’s a lot of uncertainty.”

Canadian lobstermen are facing their own set of difficulties this year. In October 2024, the Canadian government, reflecting similar actions by the U.S., placed a 100% tariff on electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products from China. China in turn announced a 25% tariff on certain Canadian products, including seafood, effective March 20, 2025. Lobster is one of Canada’s most valuable exports to China. In January this year Canadian lobster companies shipped $51.4 million (U.S.) of live, fresh, or chilled lobster to China. With the new tariff, the value of Canadian lobster sales to China is certain to drop sharply in future months.

For Maine lobstermen, the Chinese tariff on lobster means that lobster dealers will need to find new markets for the lobsters once intended for China. “There are a lot of unknowns at this point, so it’s difficult to make any predictions. At the current tariff rates, it’s unlikely that we will be selling any lobster to China, our second largest export market,” said Marianne LaCroix, executive director of the Maine Lobster Marketing Collaborative (MLMC).

Many other countries may find Maine lobsters unattractive given Trump’s across-the-board 10% tariffs. With China largely closed and demand in places such as Europe dropping, Maine lobster companies may begin selling more lobsters to Canada since there currently is no tariff in place.

Canada is Maine’s largest trading partner. The state exports $1.8 billion worth of goods to Canada each year. More than $250 million of that figure is fresh, chilled or frozen marine products, comprising 75% of all fish and shellfish exports from the state, according to Rector. Much of that is then processed in Canada and re-exported back to the U.S.

Consumer confidence will play a major role in how the upcoming lobster season plays out, both in Maine and in the Maritime provinces. If people feel confident about the future — that they will have a job, that their money still has value, that products they need will be affordable — they are more likely to spend disposable cash now, rather than save it. But consumer sentiment is plummeting, according to Rector, closely followed by business sentiment.

“It’s because of uncertainty, which comes from the tariffs, which can drive inflation,” she said. “If I am OK now, I worry that I won’t be in the future. So that means I will tamp down expenses now because I am looking ahead and am not certain how to prepare for the future.”

She noted that the Small Business Optimism Index conducted monthly by the National Federation of Independent Businesses dropped 3.3 points in March, falling just below its 51-year average. “The implementation of new policy priorities has heightened the level of uncertainty among small business owners over the past few months,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg in a recent press release. 

The uncertainty about the future experienced by the public during the Covid pandemic is not comparable to the current uncertainty, Rector added. During Covid shutdowns the federal government pumped money into the economy. With people stuck at home with little opportunity to spend money, savings went up, almost inadvertently. The anxiety people and businesses are feeling about the economy is different. “It’s one thing if it’s from the pandemic but when it’s the federal government, that makes it challenging,” she said. “So much is at risk from declining consumer sentiment. Our influence on that is limited.”

During Covid lobster dealers and processors quickly moved to develop new markets for Maine lobster and lobster products. Value-added food items were sold through companies’ new online shopping portals. Grocery chains bought and sold greater volumes of lobster. Marketing campaigns promoted Maine lobster as an at-home treat, easy to prepare and serve.

Identifying new markets for lobster is a time-consuming process, as LaCroix knows well. The Collaborative’s 2025 marketing campaign concentrates on getting “high-volume wholesale buyers” to buy Maine lobster. “Whether we can get U.S. consumers to eat more lobster is a question. If consumer confidence in the economy is low or if there actually is a recession, consumers might be inclined to save money rather than purchasing unnecessary items,” she commented via email. “We’re promoting the concept of the affordable luxury of Maine lobster, meaning that people might avoid large expenses like new cars and electronics, but can still enjoy smaller indulgences like a delicious Maine lobster roll.”

The spring lobster season is just beginning in the Eastern provinces when multiple fishing zones open in quick succession. Last year spring landings in Canada jumped dramatically from years past, bringing an unprecedented volume of lobster to the market too quickly. “There was too much lobster for about two or three weeks. It depressed the price. People are worried about that happening again,” Irvine said.

But the greater worry is what effect the uncertainty born of Trump’s tariffs will have on both the U.S. and Canadian lobster fisheries. “Our industries are so linked. When your market collapses, our price will go down. Lots of cheaper lobsters will wreck the price for all,” Irvine said. “[The current situation] has made us realize that we must sell our lobsters elsewhere in the world. And that’s very sad.”