2025 Lobster Season Marked by Concerns

Uncertainty definitely was the buzzword for many people in 2025, including those in the Maine lobster fishery. The 2025 lobster season was marked by colder water, slower landings, and a constant concern about global markets and consumer demand.

Maine Lobster Marketing Collaborative photo.

New tariffs imposed by the Trump administration dominated the news at the beginning of the year. High tariffs on Chinese goods resulted in Beijing placing sharply higher tariffs on American products, however lobster remained exempt from those tariffs under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Canada, however, felt the full brunt of a 32% Chinese tariff levied on its lobster in April, which decimated lobster exports.

Maine lobstermen were concerned. “There was real potential to have Canadian live lobster come into the U.S. market this summer [because of the Chinese tariff]. What happened is Canada produced more frozen product than in the past. So their frozen sales to U.S. and Europe went up,” said John Sackton, founder of Seafoodnews.com and seafood industry analyst.

“Chinese tariffs for Canada remain at 32%, which has meant we have shipped about 70% less live lobster by value to China, our second largest market,” explained Geoff Irvine, Lobster Council of Canada executive director. “The Canadian lobster sold to the U.S. in crates often goes to China, but we are selling at crate prices.”

Maine lobstermen complained about light landings during the summer months into the fall. Colder Gulf of Maine water temperatures, typical in past decades, left the lobsters sluggish on the bottom. The tighter supply, however, meant a stable price, according to Sackton. “Slower Maine landings kept the price in the normal range. In August and September, it was largely the same as the last three years. Retail demand stayed the same,” he said.

In September lobster prices were high, $10.60/lb. for 1-1/4 pound lobster, according to Urner Barry. Then the price quickly began to drop. By December 5, the same size lobster was $8.25/lb.

“Consumer demand was good in September,” Sackton said. “Something triggered a price decline in mid-October. The only thing that could have done it was a surge in landings because consumer demand is not elastic in the fall.”

Anecdotal reports from Maine lobstermen suggest that in some areas of the state landings ticked up. In Canada, according to Irvine, landings in the fall were normal. “LFA 25 in the Gulf [of St. Lawrence] had good landings. LFA 35, 36 and 38 in the Bay of Fundy have been down a bit and LFA 33 and 34 appear to be up slightly,” he said. “The issue is not supply, which has been steady to up. The challenge is Chinese tariffs and uncertainty in trade with the U.S. taking away confidence.”

There’s no clear answer for the fall price drop, noted Sackton, in part because the long federal government shutdown means there’s very little data available about seafood sales during that period. “It’s possible that those who buy and hold lobster for five, six weeks are being cautious and do not want to hold them. Too risky,” he said.

“Overall, it is a period of uncertainty for the live and frozen sectors, which has translated into lower shore and market prices for all lobster products,” Irvine said.

Neither Sackton nor Irvine are very confident about what 2026 will bring. “The live market in the rest of the world is slow and our lobster processors continue to be risk averse given the uncertain trade and tariff environment with our best customer, the U.S.”, Irvine noted.

“The Chinese are being pretty cautious. The tariff thing is not going away. We dodged a bullet in 2025,” Sackton said. “There could be distortions in the market in 2026.”